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Methodology

How we calculate PressurePoint Scores and what the data means.

The PressurePoint Score

The PressurePoint Score quantifies rate-increase vulnerability for a utility's residential customers by combining two core factors: the utility's effective rate and the fuel-weighted poverty rate of its service territory.

Electric: Score = rate (¢/kWh) × electric-heating poverty rate (%)

Gas: Score = rate ($/Mcf) × gas-heating poverty rate (%)

A higher score indicates greater regulatory exposure — customers are paying elevated rates in areas where more households both rely on that fuel for heating AND live below the federal poverty line. Scoring is fuel-specific: the same geographic area can have different electric and gas scores depending on which fuel the poor households use to heat their homes.

PressurePoint Tiers

TierPercentile RangeInterpretation
Most ExposedTop 20% of cohortMaximum regulatory exposure — high rates meet high poverty
At Risk60th–80th percentileSignificant exposure requiring proactive action
Watch List40th–60th percentileModerate exposure — defensible with demonstrated action
DefensibleBottom 40%Below-average regulatory exposure

Dataset Scope

PressurePoint analyzes two parallel datasets:

For utilities that serve both fuels in the same territory (64 combination utilities, e.g., ConEd, BGE, PG&E), each fuel's score is calculated independently and displayed on a single utility page with a fuel toggle.

Excluded: Cooperatives, Retail Power Marketers, State-owned, Federal, Behind the Meter, Community Choice Aggregators, and Political Subdivisions. These categories are excluded because the tool's framing around rate-regulated customer relationships doesn't apply cleanly (853 electric utilities and 2 gas cooperatives excluded).

Cohort Definitions

Utilities are grouped into six cohorts by ownership type and customer count. Ranking is done within each cohort, so an IOU Large score is not directly comparable to a Muni Small score in absolute terms.

Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs)

Municipal Utilities

The gas dataset has no Muni Major utilities (no municipal gas distributor meets the Major threshold); the JSON ships the key with an empty list to keep the frontend schema stable.

Data Sources

Key Metrics

Monthly Bill

The estimated monthly residential bill is calculated from each utility's own reported revenue, sales, and customer count — so the bill reflects both the local rate and local consumption patterns (dense urban markets like ConEd have lower per-household consumption than high-AC Southern markets).

Effective Rate = Total Residential Revenue ÷ Total Residential Sales

Monthly Avg Consumption = Total Residential Sales ÷ (Customers × 12)

Monthly Bill = Effective Rate × Monthly Avg Consumption

For utilities that report across multiple service types (bundled and delivery-only for electric; firm residential for gas), all filings are aggregated to produce a single utility-level figure per state. Gas consumption is reported in Mcf (thousand cubic feet); electric in kWh.

Poverty Rate (fuel-weighted, territory-weighted)

This is the single most important input to the score. We report a fuel-weighted, territory-weighted poverty rate derived from household-level Census microdata.

What "fuel-weighted" means

The poverty rate we report is not "all poor households in the area." It's the share of households in the territory that both:

  1. Use this fuel (electricity or natural gas) as their primary home-heating source, and
  2. Live below the federal poverty line.

This matters because a utility's real rate-case exposure comes from customers who must use that fuel. In a region where most poor households heat with propane or oil, a gas utility's score appropriately reflects a smaller at-risk population. In regions where gas-heating is dominant, gas-weighted poverty closely tracks overall poverty.

What "territory-weighted" means

Poverty is computed from the actual geography a utility serves. The method varies by utility type:

Examples: how territory-scoping changes the picture

Because PUMAs can differ substantially from surrounding regions, a utility's territory-weighted poverty can diverge sharply from broader geographic averages:

5-Year Rate Change

Percentage change in the utility's residential rate from 2019 to 2024. This trajectory metric highlights utilities facing accelerating regulatory exposure, even if their current score is moderate. Displayed-only — does not enter the pressure score formula.

National Average Comparisons

The "vs national average" callouts on utility pages use customer-weighted means across all scored utilities in the relevant fuel dataset, not unweighted averages. This prevents a handful of tiny munis from dragging the reference figure in either direction.

State Rank

Each utility is ranked against same-type peers (IOU or Municipal) within its state, providing local context for the national score.

Limitations